EL NIÑO: WHAT IS IT AND HOW WILL IT IMPACT CHILDREN AROUND THE WORLD?

The combination of El Niño and global warming will cause more extreme temperatures, more dangerous droughts and more devastating floods.

For families already struggling, another failed harvest, flood, or drought could mean children missing meals, leaving school, being forced from their homes, becoming separated from their families, or facing increased risks of violence, abuse, and exploitation.

But unlike many disasters, we can see this one coming. We know which children are most at risk. And we know early action can save lives. 

El Niño is associated with the warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America, whereas La Niña is the opposite, being associated with the cooling of the ocean’s surface. While every El Niño event is unique, they regularly cause an increase in global temperatures, on top of a climate that's already warming and lead to extreme weather events around the world.  It changes weather patterns across the world, bringing reduced rainfall to some regions and increased heavy rainfall to others, triggering fierce droughts, wildfires and heatwaves to deadly flooding and tropical storms. 

For children and families, that can mean failed crops, water shortages, worsening hunger and greater health risks.

El Niño was declared in June this year and is forecast to intensify through late 2026 and early 2027. This year’s El Niño could be one of the strongest and most disruptive on record. 

The forecast for 2026 predicts hotter conditions across nearly the entire globe, meaning the kind of extreme heat many countries have already been feeling is expected to continue and intensify through the rest of the year. 

Is El Niño caused by the climate crisis? 

Although El Niño events are natural and cyclical, the impacts are being exacerbated by the climate crisis.  El Niño events cause an increase in global temperatures, on top of a climate that's already warming. El Niño is likely to trigger a new spike in global warming. In fact, it is increasingly likely that the critical 1.5ºC global warming threshold could be temporarily breached.

1.5ºC is a tipping point which scientists have warned, if surpassed, could have irreversible consequences, dramatically increasing the risk of food and water shortages, deadly extreme weather incidents and other crises such as conflict. 

How have el Niño events impacted children in the past?   

The El Niño event of 2015/2016 impacted 60 million people across 23 countries. Millions of families were forced to leave their homes in search of food, water or work after extreme weather devastated crops and livelihoods.  

Children had no option but to leave behind their loved ones, their schools and access to healthcare and other essential services. Some 6 million children were pushed into undernourishment.  This is three times as many children who became undernourished as a result of the global COVID-19 pandemic. 

At the same time, outbreaks of diseases including cholera, malaria and dengue, left undernourished children even more vulnerable to severe illness and even death. 

El Niño in 2026 – could this be the worst year on record? 

Why is this year more dangerous? What makes 2026 so dangerous is everything it's colliding with:

• Record heat. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which can increase risks of extreme rainfall and intensify droughts.
• Rising food and farming costs. Conflict and instability have driven up the cost of food, fuel and fertiliser, making it even harder for families to feed their children.
• Severe funding shortfalls. Humanitarian aid budgets are being cut at the exact moment more families need support, leaving millions of children at greater risk.
• Overlapping conflicts and outbreaks. Sudan, South Sudan, Gaza, Ukraine and Myanmar are all dealing with active conflict and displacement. An Ebola outbreak in DRC is also spreading into neighbouring countries that are simultaneously bracing for El Niño's impacts. 

What does this mean for children?

Children are always the most vulnerable in crises like this. We also know that those hit hardest by the effects of El Niño will also be in regions already bearing the brunt of multiple crises, like conflict, climate-related disasters and skyrocketing food prices. Children like three-year-old Arupe* from northern Kenya. Drought and locust invasions have already increased prices, putting food out of reach, forcing her family to skip meals and go to bed hungry. El Niño threatens to push them even further into hunger and disease.

When families' livelihoods are destroyed by floods or drought, children may face greater risks of child labour, trafficking, neglect, violence, forced early marriage, and other forms of exploitation.  

Storms damage school buildings, and drought forces others to close. Children may be pulled out of class to work and support their families or pushed into early marriage. Some never return to school at all, with consequences that can last a lifetime. 

What should the international community be doing? 

El Niño is unfolding against a backdrop of conflict, hunger, displacement, economic instability and humanitarian funding cuts. Without early action, climate shocks are likely to compound existing vulnerabilities and deepen humanitarian needs, particularly for children and their families.

Governments must turn early warnings into early action. Forecasts, risk analysis and early warning systems have repeatedly identified where and how El Niño is likely to impact vulnerable communities. What’s missing is the political will and financing to act on those warnings before livelihoods are lost, children are pulled out of school, and humanitarian needs escalate. That means getting ready in advance and protecting essential services like schools, hospitals, water and social protection systems, before the crisis hits.  

Donors need to fund early action, not just emergency response. Money should be available quickly, reliably, and before a crisis peaks, not only after it's already causing harm.  Budgets that keep children fed, healthy, safe and in school should be protected. Despite 50% of crises being somewhat predictable today, less than 1% of humanitarian funding is allocated to early action based on risk information. Acting early is far more cost-effective than waiting for a full emergency response.

We all need to make El Niño a priority. This crisis can't be forgotten once the headlines move on. The global community needs to keep working together and push for coordinated action. We need to put children at the centre, as children are always the most vulnerable in a crisis, they must be central to the design and implementation of all anticipatory action.

The impacts of El Niño are highly predictable. That’s why Save the Children has invested significantly in anticipatory action: using forecasts and early warning data to act before a crisis hits, not after.

We're entering this El Niño better prepared than ever before. We already have anticipatory action plans in countries across Central America, East and Southern Africa, and Asia-Pacific. 

We have the tools to project the impacts it will have on children and are mobilising now to protect them. If we wait until a disaster hits, it is too late.  

These plans include:

Acting early is lifesaving. It's also far more cost-effective than waiting for a full emergency response. Anticipatory action can reach more people, faster. 

We know El Niño is coming. We know which children are most at risk. And we know early action can save lives. But we can only act before disaster strikes if enough funding is available now.  

By donating to our Children’s Emergency Fund, you can help us prepare better, respond faster, and protect children for longer.  Your donation will help us keep children safe, healthy, nourished and learning, even in the face of the extreme challenges they will face this year.