For nearly a generation, the world was telling a remarkable story about education.
Millions more children entered classrooms for the first time as countries moved steadily towards the promise that every child, regardless of where they were born, would have the chance to learn. Between 2000 and 2015 the number of primary-age children out of school dropped from about 100 million to 57 million.
But that progress is now sliding into reverse at a time when education budgets are being squeezed.
For the past seven years, the number of out of school children has been rising. Today, 273 million children and young people are out of school - equivalent to one in six of the world's school-age population. That includes 79 million primary-aged children, 22 million more than in 2015.
We know that with the right tools, we can turn back the tides on this worrying trend. Great strides have still been made since 2000 – more children are enrolled in school now than at any other point in history, gender gaps have narrowed, and many countries have strengthened their legal frameworks around education.
But the most marginalised children still face barriers to get to the school gate and stay there, trapped in the perfect storm of conflict, displacement, climate shocks, poverty, disability, and discrimination.
This is why the next phase of progress requires bolder action to meet the scale of need – and enough money to do it.
But education financing is under unprecedented pressure. Domestic budgets are constrained by rising debt, and global aid is being sharply cut. In acute crises like Gaza, where children have gone nearly three years without traditional schooling, education is often one of the least-funded sectors in a humanitarian response. Yet, children in crisis consistently tell us that education is one of their top priorities.
Globally, we are facing a catastrophic learning crisis. And no single solution exists to fix it.
Free education matters, but not if poverty forces a child into work. A new school achieves little for a girl who cannot travel there safely. Teachers cannot teach in classrooms closed by conflict or flooded by extreme weather.
I saw what this looks like for children in Zimbabwe earlier this year. In one school I visited, 80% of children live across flood-prone rivers, so when the water rises, they simply can’t get to school or sit exams. This is a stark reminder of how climate change is reshaping childhoods everywhere.
Conflict is doing the same.
More than one in five children globally now live in conflict-affected areas, and about 93 million of them are out of school. These are children like Waleed*, 17, who I met in Yemen this July. He was just eight when conflict forced his family into a displacement camp, where he struggled to continue his education before dropping out completely to help support the family.
This is why we cannot simply focus on getting more children into the classroom. Efforts must be about building stronger and more resilient education systems capable of reaching the children facing the greatest barriers and keeping them learning when crisis hits.
We know where needs are greatest, who is being left behind and what is required to help children access education and continue learning.
When world leaders pledged in 2015 to achieve education for all by 2030, they were building on 15 years of remarkable progress. The danger now is that the number of children being left behind will only continue to increase if budgets allow it to.
This month, as world leaders gather in New York for the UN General Assembly, they have an opportunity to change course.
The Global Partnership for Education (GPE) - which works with governments to strengthen education systems for the long term - is seeking at least US$5 billion this week to support education for 750 million children across 96 countries by 2030. In November, Education Cannot Wait (ECW) - which protects learning when crises strike - is seeking US$600 million to reach 10 million of the world's most vulnerable children between 2027 and 2030.
These are not competing asks. They tackle different parts of the same problem: one builds stronger education systems that can last, and the other ensures children can continue learning when those systems are disrupted, like they were for the children I met in Zimbabwe and Yemen.
Education is one of the smartest financial investments governments can make - it drives economic growth, reduces poverty, and builds more peaceful societies. One additional year of education can reduce the risk of conflict by up to 20%.
Governments gathering in New York must fully fund both replenishments to ensure scarce resources reach the children and countries that need them most.
As 2030 approaches, the unfinished promise of Education for All isn’t a measure of what was possible, but of the choices we have made. We weren’t too ambitious when that promise was made. Our political commitment, and our investment, have not matched that ambition.
The world has changed since 2015. But conflict, climate shocks and economic uncertainty do not make education less urgent - they make it indispensable. The choice facing leaders in New York this week is whether their investment in education will reflect that reality.
