Save the Children modelled the impact of rising oil prices across different commodities and applied this to its spend on supplies and logistics since the start of the conflict.
LONDON/GENEVA, 27 August 2026 – Volatile oil prices driven by six months of conflict in the Middle East are pushing up the cost of delivering aid globally and could mean Save the Children reaches 1.5 million fewer children with lifesaving assistance than planned, the child rights organisation warned. [1]
The price of crude oil has skyrocketed since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East on 28 February, due to major disruptions to global supplies of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz. Prior to the conflict, oil was projected at about US$60 per barrel for 2026, but by the end of April it had soared as high as US$126 and is now trading at about US$90 a barrel.
Save the Children modelled the impact of rising oil prices across different commodities and applied this to its spend on supplies and logistics since the start of the conflict. The modelling found that the cost of delivering aid has increased by about US$13 million since 28 February, funding that could otherwise have reached nearly 1.5 million children, putting that support at risk.
“The conflict in the Middle East is not only putting children at risk in the region but also globally because every spike in fuel prices drives up the cost of every truck, every shipment, every box of supplies we deliver around the world. We are being forced to spend more to reach fewer children,” said Willem Zuidema, Save the Children’s Global Supply Chain Director.
As oil prices increase, the rising cost of aid delivery eats into already stretched humanitarian budgets, leaving fewer resources available to reach children and their families with the support they need to survive. The additional US$13 million could otherwise have funded:
- Five 30-bed hospitals in Somalia operating for one year;
- Five cholera treatment centres operating globally for six months;
- Six months of safe drinking water for 1,500 displaced families in Lebanon;
- Five child-friendly spaces in Syria where vulnerable children can learn, play, and receive psychosocial support;
- Equipping 30 operating theatres globally to manage complicated deliveries, including caesarean sections;
- The restoration of 50 schools in Sudan; and
- 47 health clinics in Afghanistan operating for six months.
Over the past six months, the jump in oil prices has disrupted global energy, trade and supply chains, and increased the cost of food, fuel and medicines needed worldwide to treat child malnutrition and provide displaced families in conflict zones with essential supplies.
Humanitarian organisations build their annual budgets based on global inflation forecasts and projected commodity costs, with Save the Children's 2026 procurement budget set before the conflict began.
Willem Zuidema continued:
“Every extra dollar spent on rising oil prices is a dollar taken away from children who need lifesaving support. So far this year, about $13 million could be diverted from children because of soaring fuel costs - another grim consequence of this conflict. This is happening at a time when aid cuts have already stripped humanitarian budgets to the bare bones. There are no buffers left in the system.
“What is truly needed is a definitive peaceful resolution between all parties, and sustained funding for humanitarian aid, so lifesaving support reaches every child who needs it, regardless of where conflict occurs.”
Save the Children is calling on all parties to the conflict to adhere to their obligations under international humanitarian law, including by facilitating the unimpeded passage of humanitarian assistance to children, and to take urgent steps towards ending the conflict and pursuing a lasting, peaceful resolution. In the wake of soaring humanitarian costs and government funding cuts, the child rights organisation is also calling on the international community to significantly increase funding to scale up humanitarian efforts globally.
Save the Children is the world’s largest independent child rights organisation, reaching tens of millions of children annually in about 110 countries through its work to save and improve children’s lives.
ENDS
Notes to editor:
- [1] Save the Children's modelling examines the relationship between oil prices and key humanitarian supply categories, such as food, medical supplies, other procured goods, fuel, freight and shipping costs. The projection is based on publicly available data on the relationship between oil prices, commodity costs and shipping inflation, including World Bank, IMF, FRED BLOG and European Parliament, and applied to the organisation’s internal 2026 procurement budget that is based on a pre-conflict oil price baseline of US$60 per barrel for 2026.
- The 1.5 million children figure is derived from Save the Children's internal procurement data, which estimates an average cost of about US$8.86 to reach a child globally. At about US$13 million approximately being spent on rising costs associated with oil price volatility since February, this represents the equivalent of support for nearly 1.5 million children, if the US$13m would otherwise have gone directly towards programme delivery at that average cost-per-child.
- All figures are indicative estimates based on current market conditions and are subject to change as the situation develops. The full effect may not be felt immediately or everywhere at once due to existing warehouse stock, the use of alternative delivery routes, and efforts to secure alternative financing.
