Joining Forces Alliance calls for anticipatory funding to be released now, while a two-month preparedness window remains open
MOGADISHU, SOMALIA, 17 AUGUST 2026 – Four of the world's largest child rights organizations have warned that El Niño-induced flooding could displace hundreds of thousands of children in Somalia before the end of the year. They are calling on donors and development partners to urgently release anticipatory funding while there is still time to reduce the humanitarian impact and prevent avoidable loss and suffering, and call for urgent, government-led national preparedness across federal and state levels.
Early investment in preparedness and anticipatory action is critical to protecting children and their families, reducing displacement, safeguarding essential services, and minimizing the significantly higher costs associated with responding after disaster strikes. Timely donor support can help communities strengthen their resilience and ensure that vulnerable children receive the protection and assistance they need before the crisis escalates. Children and young people from the flood-prone and displacement affected communities must have a meaningful voice in preparedness and climate-resilience decisions that affect their lives. Somalia needs sustained investment in climate-resilience water systems, schools, health facilities livelihoods and social protection so that the recurring climate shocks do not become prolonged humanitarian crisis. Somalia cannot wait for children to be displaced before financing is released.
The Joining Forces Alliance in Somalia, made up of Save the Children, Plan International, SOS Children's Villages and World Vision, issued the warning as the latest forecasts put the probability of El Niño conditions at 100 per cent from July to September 2026 through to early 2027, with 23 of 26 models projecting a very strong event peaking during the October to December Deyr season.6 A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is now more than 80 per cent likely from September to November.6 That combination produced Somalia's two worst flood years on record, in 1997 and 2023.1
The 2023 floods are the measure of what is at stake. El Niño flooding during that Deyr season displaced 1.2 million people, destroyed 11,000 hectares of cropland and caused an estimated US$193.4 million in damage and losses across 16 assessed districts.2 Around 400,000 of those displaced were children, and learning was disrupted for close to 900,000 as schools were damaged or turned into shelters.3 Forecasters expect flooding to concentrate again in riverine and low-lying areas along the Juba and Shabelle, and in displacement settlements at Baidoa, Jowhar, Beletweyne and Dolow.2
Impact of floods on children
Flooding affects children in several ways at once. Floodwater contaminates wells and shallow water sources, driving outbreaks of cholera and acute watery diarrhea that are most dangerous for the youngest children.2 Roads are cut, isolating communities and children from markets, schools and health and nutrition services at the point they are most needed.2 Flood-related displacement also increases children's exposure to violence, abuse, neglect, exploitation, family separation, child labour, and child marriage, particularly where protective community structures and services are disrupted.
Education is where the damage lasts longest. Some 3.4 million children in Somalia, 58 per cent of those of school age, were already out of school in 2025, and 477 learning spaces closed last year as funding fell.3 Children who leave school during a displacement often do not return. Attendance among newly displaced children runs at around 21 per cent, against 39 per cent among their peers.3
The response is underfunded with the flood season approaching. The 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan sought US$852 million to reach 2.4 million people. It is 29.7 per cent funded as of 12 August 2026, leaving a shortfall of about US$599 million.7 Needs have risen since the plan was set, and flooding on the scale of 2023 would raise them further. The Emergency Relief Coordinator has pre-approved US$7 million from the Central Emergency Response Fund for flood preparedness ahead of the El Niño.8 That is a start against a far larger requirement. Anticipatory action must be financed before the water arrives, not after.
A window that closes in October
Rivers are currently well below flood thresholds and the country is in its dry Hagaa inter-season, which is precisely why the alliance is speaking now.4 In June, FAO's Somalia Water and Land Information Management unit (SWALIM) described the months ahead as a preparedness window of more than three months. That window is now roughly eight weeks.1 SWALIM has called for embankment repair along the Juba and Shabelle, pre-positioning of supplies in flood-prone districts, and financing arrangements agreed before the rains begin.1
What the Joining Forces Alliance is calling for
The alliance is urging donors, the Federal Government of Somalia and humanitarian partners to act on the following before the Deyr rains begin in October 2026:
Release anticipatory funding now. Money committed before the rains protects more children, and costs less, than money released after floodwater arrives.
Pre-position supplies and repair defenses. Fund embankment repair along the Juba and Shabelle, stockpiles in flood-prone districts, and safe higher-ground sites, in line with FAO-SWALIM recommendations.
Protect essential services for children. Safeguard education, health, nutrition and water services in districts at risk, and fund contingency plans that keep children learning through displacement.
Prepare for disease outbreaks. Resource cholera and acute watery diarrhoea preparedness ahead of the rains, prioritising young children and displacement settlements on low-lying ground.
Fund Somali-led preparedness. Channel flexible resources through Somali institutions and local organisations, under Federal Government coordination.
Commit to multi-year, flexible financing. Reverse the shortfall that has left the 2026 response under 20 per cent funded and closed learning spaces.
ABOUT JOINING FORCES
Joining Forces is a global alliance of six child-focused international NGOs: ChildFund Alliance, Plan International, Save the Children, SOS Children's Villages International, Terre des Hommes International Federation, and World Vision. The alliance works to accelerate progress toward realizing children's rights and ending violence against children. For more information, visit www.joining-forces.org
NOTES TO THE EDITOR
FAO Somalia, 2 June 2026: Source for the elevated risk of riverine and flash flooding along the Juba and Shabelle during the October to December Deyr season, the amplifying effect of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, the 1997 and 2023 analogues, and the preparedness window and recommended priority actions including embankment repair and pre-positioning of supplies. https://www.fao.org/somalia/news/details/fao-warns-somalia-to-prepare-now-for-potential-el-ni%C3%B1o-linked-flooding-later-in-2026/en
FEWS NET, Somalia Food Security Outlook, June 2026 to January 2027. Source for the 2023 Deyr flood impacts of 1.2 million people displaced, 11,000 hectares of cropland destroyed and an estimated US$193.4 million in damage and losses across 16 assessed districts; the expectation that flooding will again concentrate in riverine and low-lying areas along the Juba and Shabelle and in the Baidoa, Jowhar, Beletweyne and Dolow displacement settlements; and increased water-borne disease and disruption to markets and services during the Deyr rains. https://fews.net/east-africa/somalia/food-security-outlook/june-2026
Geneva Global Hub for Education in Emergencies, Somalia country brief, December 2025. Source for the 2023 flood impact on children's education, the 3.4 million out-of-school figure, the closure of 477 learning spaces in 2025, and school attendance of around 21 per cent among newly displaced children against 39 per cent among non-displaced peers. https://eiehub.org/country-briefs/country-brief-somalias-education-crisis
FAO-SWALIM, Somalia Weekly Weather Forecast, 9 to 15 June 2026. Source for current river levels below moderate flood thresholds and the characterisation of the present period as the dry Hagaa inter-season. https://faoswalim.org/resources/site_files/Somalia_Rainfall_Forecast_10_Jun_2026.pdf
ACAPS, Global El Niño Overview: Countries to Watch, 7 July 2026. Background. ACAPS classifies the current El Niño as strong and lists Somalia among countries facing severe humanitarian impacts to March 2027. https://www.acaps.org/fileadmin/Data_Product/Main_media/20260707_ACAPS_El_Nino_Overview_-_Countries_to_watch_.pdf
International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, ENSO Quick Look and IOD Forecast, 20 July 2026. Source for El Niño probabilities of 100 per cent from July to September 2026 through January to March 2027; the projection by 23 of 26 models of a very strong event (Niño 3.4 at or above +2.0 °C) peaking during October to December 2026; and positive Indian Ocean Dipole probabilities above 80 per cent from September to November 2026. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/
OCHA Financial Tracking Service, Somalia Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2026, and OCHA, Somalia 2026 Humanitarian Funding Overview (as of 31 July 2026). Source for the plan being 29.7 per cent funded against a requirement of US$852 million to reach 2.4 million people, leaving a shortfall of approximately US$599 million. The requirement and target population are as set out in the plan launched on 26 January 2026. https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/somalia-2026-humanitarian-funding-overview-31-july-2026 https://fts.unocha.org/plans/1516/summary
United Nations in Somalia, round-up of UN system activities in Somalia, June 2026. Source for the Emergency Relief Coordinator pre-approving US$17 million in Central Emergency Response Fund anticipatory funding, of which US$7 million is for response preparedness to mitigate the anticipated impact of severe flooding during the El Niño. https://somalia.un.org/en/319171-round-activities-un-system-somalia-june-2026
FOR MEDIA INQUIRIES, PLEASE CONTACT
Save the Children Somalia
Mohamed Abdinasir Jama, Head of Communications and Media
Email: mohamed.jama1@savethechildren.org Phone: +252 90 7859700
World Vision Somalia
Walter Mawere, Communications and Marketing Manager
Email: walter_mawere@wvi.org Phone: +263 77 357 6324
Plan International Somalia
Muhiim Osman, Communication and Media Focal Person
Email: Muhiim.Osman@plan-international.org
SOS Children's Villages Somalia
Dahir Abdullahi, Communication and Advocacy Manager
Email: dahir.abdullahi@sossomalia.org Phone: +252 612654436
Spokespeople are available for interview in English and Somali. Broadcast-quality footage and photographs are available on request, subject to consent and safeguarding clearance.
